AUDUSD Setup Pending Weekly Range Break- At Risk Below 9300

Talking Points

• AUDUSD up nearly 7.5% off 2014 low
• Rally at risk below key resistance
• Weekly/Monthly Opening Ranges taking shape just below

AUDUSD Daily Chart

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

• AUDUSD Weekly/Monthly opening range taking shape below key resistance 9308/38
• Near-term bias shifts lower with break below 9208/18
• Subsequent support objectives 9140/47, 9080 & 9046
• Breach above 9338 targets resistance at 9394 & 9522 (H&S objective)
• Daily RSI holds Sub-70 suggests near-term momentum waning
• Momentum support trigger pending
• Event Risk Ahead- US Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday

AUDUSD Scalp Chart

Notes: Since our last AUDUSD update in March, the pair has pushed higher taking out the inital topside objectives before failing just ahead of the 100% extension taken form the 2014 low at 9308. The pair has now offered a well-defined weekly opening range (9218-9303) just below key resistance with long exposure at risk below the weekly high heading into Friday’s NFP report. Although an intra-day outside reversal candle at fresh 4-month highs earlier in the week did put a bearish tone on the pair, we await a break below the weekly range low to offer further conviction that a near-term high may be in place.

Bottom line: we’ll look for a definitive break of the weekly open to validate our scalp bias with our initial focus against the 9308/38 resistance range. That said, it’s important to note that the Aussie continues to trade within the confines of an ascending channel formation dating back to the January lows and a breach above this thresholds puts the topside back in play eyeing objectives up into the 9500 region. A break sub-9080 is needed to shift the broader focus back to the short side. Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid

*ORH: Opening Range High

*ORL: Opening Range Low

Other Setups in Play:

• GBPJPY Long Scalps Favored into April Opening Range- 172.60 in Focus
• Scalps Favor Selling Rallies in EURAUD Post Head and Shoulders Break
• GBPUSD Setup Targets Key Support- Scalp Bias Constructive Above 1.6469
• AUDUSD Testing Key Resistance at 9150- Weekly Open in Focus
• Key Reversals on USDOLLAR, Gold Post FOMC- March Range at Risk

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

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