EURJPY Scalps Target Critical Support at 141
Talking Points
- EURJPY fails at 61.8% retracement- momentum at resistance- bearish
- Weekly opening range break to validate- Critical support 141
- Major event risk on tap from Eurozone, Japan, and US
EURJPY Daily Chart
Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Technical Outlook
- EURJPY in consolidation off the 2014 high
- Signals near-term exhaustion above 61.8% retracement of April decline
- Daily RSI signature looks to hold below trigger confluence, sub 60- bearish
- Critical support objective at 140.89/98
- Subsequent support targets 140.00, 1.3874-139.10
- Resistance at 142.45, 14260/71- bullishinvalidation
- Event Risk Ahead: Eurozone CPI on Wednesday and Japanese Jobless Rate on Thursday
EURJPY Scalp Chart
Notes: Weaker than expected German CPI data this morning prompted a bout of euro weakness, triggering a sharp reversal in the EURJPY. The weekly opening range is set between 140.98-142.46. RSI divergence and a clear support-trigger break earlier today has our immediate focus on the short-side against today’s high’s with a break below the weekly range low at the 61.8% retracement needed to validate our near-term scalp bias.
Keep in mind tomorrow is the last day of the month and although there’s no pressing data out of Japan until Thursday, the FOMC policy meeting could impact broader market sentiment. Bottom line: we’ll continue favor selling rallies while below the weekly low with only a move surpassing 142.60/70 suggesting that a more significant low was put in place this month. Our primary support objective at the 141-handle remains paramount with a break/close below risking substantial losses into subsequent support targets at 140 and 139.10.Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.
* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.
Key Threshold Grid
|
Entry/Exit Targets |
Timeframe |
Level |
Significance |
|
Resistance Target 1 |
30min |
141.89/98 |
61.8% Ext / 23.6% Retrace / Last Week’s High |
|
Resistance Target 2 |
Daily / 30min |
142.16 |
61.8% Retrace / Dec 10th High / Soft Resistance |
|
Resistance Target 2 |
Daily / 30min |
142.45 |
Weekly ORH / Weekly R2 Pivot |
|
Bearish Invalidation |
30min |
142.60/71 |
1.618% Ext / Swing low 4/2 |
|
Break Target 1 |
30min |
143.08 |
88.6% Retracement / ~TL Resistance |
|
Break Target 2 |
30min |
143.46 |
April High |
|
Break Target 3 |
Daily / 30min |
14365/81 |
78.6% Retrace / 100% Ext / March High |
|
Support Target 1 |
30min |
141.55 |
38.2% Retracement |
|
Support Target 2 |
30min |
141.20 |
38.2% Extension |
|
Bullish Invalidation |
Daily / 30min |
140.89/98 |
Weekly ORL & S1 Pivot / 61.8% & 38.2% Retrace(s) |
|
Break Target 1 |
30min |
1.4042/58 |
78.6% Retrace / 61.8% Ext |
|
Break Target 2 |
Daily / 30min |
139.89 – 140.00 |
50% Retrace / 61.8% & 78.6% Ext(s) |
|
Daily (20) |
86 |
Profit Targets 20-22pips |
|
*ORH: Opening Range High
*ORL: Opening Range Low
Other Setups in Play:
- Scalping the GBPNZD Breakout- Longs Favored Above 1.96
- Key Risks to EUR, NZD, GBPAUD Scalp Setups
- NZDUSD Weekly Opening Range Trade- Longs at Risk Sub 8700
- EURUSD Scalp Setup Favors Buying Dips While Above 1.3830
- AUDUSD Setup Pending Weekly Range Break- At Risk Below 9300
- GBPJPY Long Scalps Favored into April Opening Range- 172.60 in Focus
---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex
To contact Michael email [email protected] or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list
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