EURUSD Fails at Key Resistance- Short Scalps Favored Sub 1.37

Talking Points

• EURUSD struggles below key technical resistance 1.3767
• Weekly opening range support break shifts scalp bias to the short-side
• Event risk on tap from Eurozone & US heading into month-end

EURUSD Daily Chart

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

• EURUSD reacts to key Fibonacci resistance at 1.3767
• Daily RSI failure to mount 60 / Support trigger break – bearish
• Weekly opening range support break- bearish
• Near-term support 1.3660- Break targets objectives at 1.3590/1.3613, 1.3515 & 1.3457/76
• Breach above 1.3767 resistance (bearish invalidation) targets 1.38, 1.3830 & 1.3895
• Key Events Ahead: German Inflation & Employment, Eurozone Consumer Confidence& US Durable Goods tomorrow, Eurozone Unemployment & US GDP data on Friday

EURUSD Scalp Chart

Notes: An outside reversal day on February 6th shifted our focus to the topside in the EURUSD with the pair completing a 100% extension of the advance off the February low at 1.3767. The euro has since traded in a tight range below this mark with daily RSI failing to hold above the 60-threshold before breaking a support trigger dating back to the January low.

The pair has now made a weekly opening range break to the short-side just below key resistance at 1.3767. Our immediate focus is lower on the pair while below 1.3707 with only a breach above 1.3767 warranting long-side exposure. The euro came into an important support zone today defined by the 38.2% retracement of the February advance at 1.3660 and we’ll let intra-day RSI reset to offer more favorable short triggers. With time cycle analysis also turning heavy here, we’ll look to sell rallies / breaks of support while below the weekly range low.

It’s important to remain prudent heading into the close of the week with end-of-month flows and key data prints later this week from the Euro zone & the US likely to fuel added volatility.Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid

*ORH: Opening Range High

*ORL: Opening Range Low

Other Setups in Play:

• EURJPY Rally at Risk Sub 141- Weekly Opening Range in Focus
• USDCAD Reversal Underway- Long Scalps Favored Above 1.10
• GBPAUD Weekly Range in Focus- Bullish Scalp Bias at Risk Sub 1.86
• GBPCAD Challenging Feb Range High- Scalp Bias Bullish Above 1.8037
• AUDNZD Target Key Resistance- Bullish Scalp Bias at Risk Sub 1.09

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

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