Forex: US Dollar Retreats to Chart Support, Gold May Fall Further

Talking Points:

• US Dollar Still Locked in a Familiar Range Above March Low
• S&P 500 Threatening the Bottom of its Long-Standing Range
• Crude Oil Rebounds as Expected, Gold Vulnerable to Losses

Can’t access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continue to oscillate in a choppy range below resistance at 10595, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. A break below near-term support in the 10495-500 area, marked by the 38.2% Fib expansion and the March 19 low, exposes the 50% mark at 10470. Alternatively, a reversal above resistance aims for the 50% Fib retracement at 10626.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continue to consolidate below support-turned-resistance at the bottom of a rising channel set from mid-February (now at 1892.60), a level reinforced by the March 7 high at 1888.60. Near-term support is in the 1847.90-53.00 area, marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion and the December 31 close, with a break below that targeting the 38.2% level at 1831.00.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices reversed downward as expected after putting in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern. A break below the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1319.01 has exposed the 38.2% level at 1273.88, with a further move below that eyeing the 50% Fib at 1237.40. Alternatively, a reversal back above 1319.01 aims for trend line support-turned-resistance is now at 1344.85.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are pushing higher as expected after putting in a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern. A break above resistance at 99.57, the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion, has exposed the 23.6% level at 100.83. Pushing further above that aims for the 38.2% Fib at 102.87. Alternatively, a move back below 99.57 exposes 97.53, the March 12 low.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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