Forex: US Dollar Weighing its Options at 17-Month Trend Support

Talking Points:

• US Dollar Still Consolidating at Familiar Trend Support
• S&P 500 Sets New Record High Resistance Looms Ahead
• Crude Oil Testing Key Support, Gold at Risk of Reversal

Can’t access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continue to consolidate above support at a rising trend line set from September 2012. A break above resistance at 10614, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, initially exposes the 38.2% level at 10673. Trend line support is now at 10553, with a reversal below that eyeing the February 17 low at 10520.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices cleared resistance at 1851.40, the 2013 high, with buyers now set to challenge the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1863.60. A break above this barrier targets a rising channel top at 1871.60, followed by the 38.2% level at 1881.30. Alternatively, a move back below 1851.40 eyes the channel bottom at 1838.70.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices put in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern below resistance at a falling trend line set from April 2013, hinting at a turn lower ahead. Negative RSI divergence bolsters the case for a downside scenario. A break below support at 1306.00, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, exposes the 38.2% level at 1281.71. Trend line resistance is now at 1344.54.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are testing support in the 101.63-97 area, marked by the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement and a rising trend line set from mid-January. Negative RSI divergence argues for weakness ahead. A break below this barrier exposes the 100.53-73 area, defined by the 23.6% level and the December 27 high. Near-term resistance is at 103.41, the February 24 high.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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