NZDJPY Monthly Opening Range Trade- Bearish Sub 89.50
Talking Points
- NZDJPY awaits monthly opening range break to validate bias
- Key support 87.61/90
- Updated scalp targets and invalidation levels
NZDJPY Daily Chart
Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Technical Outlook
- NZDJPY sets clean May Opening Range 97.90 - 89.28
- Break to validate monthly bias
- Support objectives 87.61/90, 86.59/66 & 86.30
- Key resistance range 89.30/50 – bearish invalidation
- Daily RSI reversal at 60- bearish
- Support & Resistance triggers pending
- Limited event risk into the close of the week
NZDJPY Scalp Chart
Notes: The monthly opening range is set just below the 89.28/50 resistance range and our focus is lower on the NZDJPY while below this threshold. Although the initial weekly opening range came in at 88.13, we’ve amended the level to include a Fibonacci confluence zone just lower at 87.93 - 88.01. We will reserve this level as our near-term bullish invalidation with a break below warranting short exposure into subsequent support targets.
Bottom line: looking to sell rallies with RSI conviction while below 89.28 with only a breach above 89.50 invalidating our near-term bias. A daily close sub 87.61 would validate the monthly range break with such a scenario eyeing subsequent targets into key support at 86.60. Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.
* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.
Key Threshold Grid
|
Entry/Exit Targets |
Timeframe |
Level |
Significance |
|
Resistance Target 1 |
30min |
88.41 |
38.2% Retracement |
|
Bearish Invalidation |
30min |
88.59/60 |
50% Retracement / Weekly ORH |
|
Break Target 1 |
30min |
88.89 |
61.8% Retracement |
|
Break Target 3 |
Daily / 30min |
89.27/50 |
May ORH / 76.4% Retrace / 2014 Close High |
|
Break Target 4 |
Daily / 30min |
89.90 – 90.01 |
138.2% Extension / 2014 High |
|
Break Target 5 |
Daily |
91.04 |
1.618% Fib Extension |
|
Bullish Invalidation |
Daily / 30min |
87.93 – 88.01 |
23.6%, 61.8% Retrace(s) / 50% Ext / May ORL |
|
Break Target 1 |
Daily / 30min |
87.61/66 |
61.8% Extension / 78.6% Retrace |
|
Break Target 2 |
30min |
87.16/22 |
61.8% Retracement / April Low |
|
Break Target 3 |
Daily / 30min |
86.59/67 |
100% Ext / 38.2% Retracements |
|
Break Target 4 |
Daily |
86.30 |
78.6% Retracement |
|
Daily (20) |
70 |
Profit Targets 16-18pips |
|
*ORH: Opening Range High
*ORL: Opening Range Low
Other Setups in Play:
- EURAUD Scalp Setup Favors Selling Rallies Sub-1.5030
- EURJPY Scalps Target Critical Support at 141
- Scalping the GBPNZD Breakout- Longs Favored Above 1.96
- Key Risks to EUR, NZD, GBPAUD Scalp Setups
- EURUSD Scalp Setup Favors Buying Dips While Above 1.3830
---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex
To contact Michael email [email protected] or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list
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