Price & Time: How Important Was Last Week’s High in the Euro?

Talking Points

• Cyclical picture negative in the Euro for a few weeks
• USD/JPY rebounding from bottom of range or about to break lower?
• AUD/USD in midst of turn window

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

• USD/JPY is trading near the low end of its multi-month range
• Our near-term trend bias remains lower in the exchange rate while below 103.10
• The 4th square root realtionship of the year’s high at 101.35 remains a key pivot with a daily close below required to trigger a more serious push lower in the rate
• A very minor cycle turn window is seen today
• An advance through 103.10 would shift the near-term trend bias to positive on USD/JPY

USD/JPY Strategy: Like the short side while below 103.10.

Price & Time Analysis: AUD/USD

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

• AUD/USD reversed sharply around the start of the month from the 50% retracement of the October – January decline near .9200
• Our near-term trend bias is higher while over .9315
• The 78.6% retracement of the April/May decline at .9405 is interim resistance, but a move through the 8th square root relationship of the year’s low at .9470 needs to be overcome to setup a more important move higher
• A cycle turn window is seen around this time
• A move under .9315 would focus lower

AUD/USD Strategy: Like only reduced longs while over .9315.

Focus Chart of the Day: EUR/USD

The sharp reversal last week in the Euro from just above key resistance at 1.3970 during a key cyclical period seems to have confirmed the important turn we were looking for in the exchange rate. While some modest strength could be seen this week, the cyclical picture looks generally negative for at least a few more weeks. The 2nd square root relationship of the year’s high at 1.3755 remains an important pivot with weakness below this level on a daily close basis needed to further confirm the negative cyclical view and set up a decline towards the March low around 1.3670 - which is also a potential double top trigger. Only unexpected aggressive strength back over 1.3900 would undermine this negative outlook.

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--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail [email protected]. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX