Ukrainian Crisis on the Brink – How are the EUR and USD Impacted?

Talking Points:

- EURUSD unfazed by Russian/Ukrainian developments right now.

- USDJPY remains weak under 102.90/95; EURJPY needs 140.85/141.45.

- ECB rate decision on Thursday.

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The Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc have been the preferred safe havens during the recent swell in geopolitical fears - this may leave room for both the Euro and the US Dollar to rally if fears calm.

The EURUSD's bullish requirement has edged up to 1.3820 this week, now having been turned away from the late-December 2013 spike and has fallen back below the July-November 2013 ascending trendline. Yesterday's low near 1.3740 is a good reference for now.

EURJPY and USDJPY remain trapped below their February highs and that's the minimum requirement to get these pairs moving in line with their long-standing (since November 2012) bull trend. For EURJPY, this level desired it 141.45; for USDJPY, 102.95.

Read more: Euro Could Surge if Rebounding Inflation Translates into ECB Hold

Errata: Vladimir Putin is the President of the Russian Federation, not the Prime Minister as mistakingly noted.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail [email protected]

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX