US Dollar Clings to Trend Support, SPX 500 Probing 2013 High

Talking Points:

• US Dollar Treading Water at 17-Month Trend Support
• S&P 500 Struggles to Confirm Direction at 2013 High
• Gold, Crude Oil Chart Setups Warn of Reversals Lower

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US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are once again testing support at a rising trend line set from September 2012, a barrier reinforced by the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 10547. A break below this barrier initially exposes the 38.2% level at 10513. Near-term resistance is at 10602, the February 21 high.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are testing resistance at 1851.40, the 2013 high. Near-term support is at 1830.70, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below that on a daily closing basis targeting the intersection of a rising a rising trend line and the 38.2% level at 1813.00. Alternatively, a push above resistance aims for the 38.2% Fib expansion at 1861.80.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are testing resistance at 1345.25, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. This barrier is reinforced by a falling trend line set from April 2013, now at 1350.27. A break above the latter barrier initially exposes the 38.2% level at 1368.76. Negative RSI divergence warns of a turn lower ahead however. Near-term support is at 1307.26, the February 20 low.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are testing support at 101.63, the intersection of the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement and a rising trend line set from mid-January, with negative RSI divergence arguing for weakness ahead. A break below this barrier exposes the 100.53-73 area, marked by the 23.6% level and the December 27 high. Near-term resistance is at 103.41, the February 24 high.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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