MRG MEGA BERJANGKA
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US Dollar Range Holding, SPX 500 Rally May Be Losing Steam

Posted By : MRG Mega Berjangka, Mar 06, 2014 – 06:07

Talking Points:

US Dollar Still Consolidating Above Familiar Trend Support
S&P 500 Bullish Momentum Might Be Starting to Dissipate
Crude Oil Turns Lower as Expected, Gold Prices May Follow

Can’t access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are still struggling to find direction, with trading locked in a narrow consolidation range above support at a rising trend line set from September 2012. A break above resistance at 10614, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, initially exposes the 38.2% level at 10673. Trend line support is now at 10559, with a reversal below that eyeing the February 17 low at 10520.

Forex_US_Dollar_Range_Holding_SPX_500_Rally_May_Be_Losing_Steam_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Range Holding, SPX 500 Rally May Be Losing Steam

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices recovered above the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1863.60 to test rising channel top resistance at 1879.40. This barrier is reinforced by the 38.2% level at 1881.30. A break above the latter boundary exposes the 50% Fib at 1895.70. Emerging negative RSI divergence warns of ebbing bullish momentum and hints a turn lower may be ahead however. Sliding back below 1863.60 opens the door for another test of the channel floor, now at 1847.40.

Forex_US_Dollar_Range_Holding_SPX_500_Rally_May_Be_Losing_Steam_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Range Holding, SPX 500 Rally May Be Losing Steam

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices put in a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern below resistance at a falling trend line set from April 2013, hinting a turn lower may be ahead. Negative RSI divergence bolsters the case for a downside scenario. Breaking below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1313.14 exposes the 38.2% level at 1287.48. Trend line resistance is now at 1356.08.

Forex_US_Dollar_Range_Holding_SPX_500_Rally_May_Be_Losing_Steam_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Range Holding, SPX 500 Rally May Be Losing Steam

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices turned lower as expected after forming a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern. Sellers have moved to challenge support at 101.73, the December 27 high, a barrier reinforced by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 99.85. A break below the latter level exposes the 50% Fib at 98.20. Alternatively, a turn back above the 23.6% retracement at 101.89 eyes rising trend line support-turned-resistance at 103.15.