Auto Sales Help Keep Retail Sales Positive, But USD Lower on Miss

Talking Points:

-Advance Retail Sales MoM (APR) comes in at 0.1% vs. 0.4% expected and 1.2% prior

-Ex Auto MoM (APR) comes in at 0.0% vs. 0.6% estimated

-Ex Auto and Gas MoM (APR) comes in at -0.1% vs. 0.5% estimated

-Control Group (APR) comes in at -0.1% vs. 0.5% estimated

April Retail Sales figures out of the U.S. came in worse than expected across the board and just managed to edge out at 0.1% gain. If we exclude auto and gas sales, then retail sales actually declined 0.1%. Consumer Credit figures over the past few months have indicated that only non-revolving credit (auto, student loans) have seen increases while revolving (credit cards) has continued to indicate flat or declining rates of growth.

Revisions for March indicated a slightly better situation as we saw the MoM advance print come in at 1.5% vs. 1.1% before revisions while the control group was revised from 0.8% to 1.3%. The most notable MoM decline in April was in electronic stores (-2.3%) while the strongest MoM increases came from auto dealers (10.0%), health stores (6.6%), food & beverage (6.5%) and furniture (3.6%).

The Euro is trading slightly higher versus the greenback, but still remains lower on the day on more Euro intervention comments on the wires late in the European session. US 10yr yields spiked lower at the print from 2.655% to 6.6323% at the time of this report.

EUR/USD May 13, 2014 (5-Minute Chart)

Source: FXCM Marketscope

Gregory Marks, DailyFX Research Team

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