British Pound Down Move May Be Nearing a Exhaustion Point

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Talking Points:

• Pound Has Fallen on BOE Rate Hike Speculation Downgrade
• COT Data Suggests GBPUSD Rally May Be in the Cards Ahead
• Put Positioning Data on Your Charts with the FXCM COT App

The British Pound has fallen against the US Dollar in 2014. Priced-in expectations show that the market anticipates the Bank of England will keep rates constant for the foreseeable future; this is a change from July 2014 in which the market was anticipating the central bank to increase rates by 50 basis points. This sharp downgrade in investors’ expectation of a BOE rate hike has caused the GBPUSD to decline in the second half of 2014.

Recently, the CFTC’s COT report (which can be added to your charts) shows speculative traders’ net position crossed the lower 2 standard deviation, 52-week average to hint that the pound might be oversold.

GBP/USD Daily Chart

Prepared by Shawn Jagpal, Created Using FXCM Marketscope