Crude Oil Looks To Inventories, Gold Gains Hinge On USD Weakness

Talking Points

• Crude to take guidance from inventories and Iraqi supply concerns
• Gold and silver at a crossroads ahead of US labour market figures
• Platinum breaks out as supply disruption fears linger following strike

Crude oil continues to tease traders at the critical $105.00 handle with weekly inventories data from the US set to offer the growth-sensitive commodity guidance over the session ahead. Meanwhile, gold and silver are left at a crossroads as their pricing currency, the US Dollar trades near noteworthy support ahead of US labor market figures. Finally, copper has eased back from it highest level in more than a month as traders eagerly await upcoming Chinese economic data.

Inventories, Iraq Offer WTI Bearings

WTI is holding steady in Asian trading today after probing below $105.00 overnight on the back of a disappointing US ISM Manufacturing reading. Upcoming inventories figures are likely to offer the commodity guidance over the session ahead. The Weekly Petroleum Status Report from the Department of Energy is tipped to reveal a decline in total inventories of 2.4M barrels for the week. While a drawdown in stockpiles would reflect a rise in demand for crude oil evidence of a supply glut remains in the US. Total inventory levels are hovering near their record highs reached in April, while the rate of US crude production is at its highest since 1986. Sustained gains for crude likely hinge on expectations for a ramp up in refinery utilization to mop-up the abundant supply.

Iraqi crude oil supply disruption fears also continue to exert influence over the Brent and WTI benchmarks. Despite the unrest showing little signs of resolution, the turmoil has yet to impede the country’s oil output which accounts for 11 percent of OPEC supply. The absence of a further escalation in the region could leave the growth-sensitive commodity to a correction as the risk premium due to the conflict evaporates.

US Dollar Hangs Hopes On Labor Market Data

The direction of the greenback remains an important consideration for gold and silver prices. Patchy US data alongside guarded comments from Fed officials have left the US Dollar to continue its downward trajectory, affording gold and silver a recovery. Barring a significant upside surprise from the looming ADP figures (tipped to reveal 205,000 jobs added for June) the USD bulls may find little impetus to stage a comeback, which in turn could keep gold elevated.

Also in the precious metals space platinum soared by 1.58 percent for the most recent session, its largest one day gain since June 10th . Similar strength was also witnessed for palladium (which is mined together with platinum), suggesting undersupply concerns may be lingering for the precious metals after the end of the prolonged South African mining strike. Despite workers in the country’s platinum belt returning to mines last week, it is likely to take some time before fresh supply comes online.

Copper Stalls Ahead of China Data

Copper traders will be hit with another slew of Chinese economic data on Thursday, with both the official and HSBC services PMI figures set to cross the wires during Asian trading. A turnaround in recent data from the Asian giant has helped alleviate concerns over a further deceleration in economic growth. China is the largest consumer of copper and as such continued improvements in leading indicators like the PMI figures could offer some impetus to the base metal bulls.

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WTI continues to tease traders near the psychologically-significant 105.00 handle. Signs of indecision from traders are evident with several Doji candlesticks emerging on the daily. However, we are yet to see a key reversal pattern appear that could signal a recovery back to the recent highs near 107.60. This suggests a degree of caution is necessary when looking to play a bounce.

Crude Oil: Teasing Traders On Tests of 105.00

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

As noted in recent commodities reports gold was primed for another push higher, given several signs of an uptrend had appeared on the daily chart. However, further upside gains may be limited at this point due to noteworthy resistance at 1,330 hanging nearby. Further, a Gravestone Doji formation suggests hesitation from the bulls, yet is not enough to warn of a correction at this stage.

The DailyFX SpeculativeSentiment Index suggests a mixed bias for gold based on trader positioning.

Gold: Support Holds at 1,310

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The Silver bulls have finally lost steam after the precious metal pushed an extreme number of consecutive positive periods (noted by the Consecutive Bars indicator). While several Doji candlesticks suggests the potential for a reversal, with support nearby at 20.80, the extent of any correction may prove limited. Additionally, signs of an uptrend remain as noted by the 20 SMA and Rate of Change indicator.

Silver: Pullback Finds Support at 20.80

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COPPER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Copper’s advance has stalled following a push past resistance (now support) at 3.19. A Doji candlestick denotes hesitation by bulls, however, indications of an uptrend remain intact (20 SMA and ROC). Sellers are likely to emerge at the 3.23 mark.

Copper: Doji Denotes Hesitation Near Key Support

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

PALLADIUM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Palladium’s break above 836 negated a bearish technical bias for the precious metal. This follows a push above the 20 SMA which signals the potential emergence of an uptrend. Some skepticism for further gains may still be warranted given former trendline support-turned resistance looms nearby.

Palladium: Upside Breakout Negates Bearish Technical Bias

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

PLATINUM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Platinum has broken above its long-held range-top near 1,489 (now support) as indications of an uptrend (20 SMA) suggest the potential for a run on the Sep 2013 high near 1,538.

Platinum: Breakout Opens Sep 2013 High

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Written by David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst, DailyFX

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