Euro Looking for a Lifeline in Inflation Data as ECB Meeting Looms
Talking Points:
- Euro Looking for a Lifeline in Eurozone CPI Report Ahead of ECB Meeting
- Australian, NZ Dollars Move Lower as Risk Appetite Unravels in Asian Trade
- See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App
Augusts’ preliminary Eurozone CPI reading headlines the economic calendar in European hours. The benchmark year-on-year inflation rate is expected to edge lower to 0.3 percent, marking the lowest level since October 2009.
In overall terms, price-growth data from the single currency area has cautiously improved relative to consensus forecasts since the beginning of the year, opening the door for an upside surprise. A better-than-expected reading may chip away at speculation about an expansion of ECB stimulus measures at next week’s monetary policy meeting, sending the Euro higher.
Leading survey data disagrees however, pointing to the largest drop in output prices in there months in August. With that said, the extent of recent selling and seemingly stretched speculative net-short speculative positioning suggests the risk of outsized volatility may be asymmetrically greater on the upside than otherwise. For what it’s worth, technical positioning hints a EURUSD bounce may be ahead.
The Australian and New Zealand Dollars underperformed in overnight trade as risk appetite unraveled, weighing on the sentiment-linked high yielders. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark stock index fell 0.2 percent and is on pace to register its first monthly drop since April.
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Asia Session
|
GMT |
CCY |
EVENT |
ACT |
EXP |
PREV |
|
22:45 |
NZD |
Building Permits (MoM) (JUL) |
0.1% |
1.0% |
3.5% |
|
23:01 |
GBP |
Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) (AUG) |
0.1% |
- |
0.1% |
|
23:01 |
GBP |
Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) (AUG) |
5.5% |
- |
5.8% |
|
23:05 |
GBP |
GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (AUG) |
1 |
-1 |
-2 |
|
23:30 |
JPY |
National CPI (YoY) (JUL) |
3.4% |
3.4% |
3.6% |
|
23:30 |
JPY |
National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (JUL) |
2.3% |
2.3% |
2.3% |
|
23:30 |
JPY |
National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (JUL) |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
|
23:30 |
JPY |
Tokyo CPI (YoY) (AUG) |
2.8% |
2.7% |
2.8% |
|
23:30 |
JPY |
Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (AUG) |
2.7% |
2.7% |
2.8% |
|
23:30 |
JPY |
Tokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (AUG) |
2.1% |
2.1% |
2.1% |
|
23:30 |
JPY |
Jobless Rate (JUL) |
3.8% |
3.7% |
3.7% |
|
23:30 |
JPY |
Household Spending (YoY) (JUL) |
-5.9% |
-2.9% |
-3.0% |
|
23:30 |
JPY |
Job-To-Applicant Ratio (JUL) |
1.1 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
|
23:50 |
JPY |
Large Retailers' Sales (JUL) |
-0.6% |
-0.8% |
-1.8% |
|
23:50 |
JPY |
Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (JUL) |
1.95% |
- |
2.30% |
|
23:50 |
JPY |
Retail Trade (YoY) (JUL) |
0.5% |
-0.2% |
-0.6% |
|
23:50 |
JPY |
Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (JUL) |
-0.5% |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
23:50 |
JPY |
Industrial Production (MoM) (JUL P) |
0.2% |
1.0% |
-3.4% |
|
23:50 |
JPY |
Industrial Production (YoY) (JUL P) |
-0.9% |
-0.1% |
3.1% |
|
1:00 |
NZD |
ANZ Activity Outlook (AUG) |
36.6 |
- |
45.1 |
|
1:00 |
NZD |
ANZ Business Confidence (AUG) |
24.4 |
- |
39.7 |
|
1:30 |
AUD |
Private Sector Credit (MoM) (JUL) |
0.4% |
0.5% |
0.7% |
|
1:30 |
AUD |
Private Sector Credit (YoY) (JUL) |
5.1% |
5.1% |
5.0% |
|
3:00 |
NZD |
Money Supply M3 (YoY) (JUL) |
5.3% |
- |
5.4% |
|
4:00 |
JPY |
Vehicle Production (YoY) (JUL) |
-1.7% |
- |
6.6% |
|
5:00 |
JPY |
Housing Starts (YoY) (JUL) |
-10.5% |
-9.5% |
|
|
5:00 |
JPY |
Annualized Housing Starts (JUL) |
0.871M |
0.883M |
|
|
5:00 |
JPY |
Construction Orders (YoY) (JUL) |
- |
9.3% |
European Session
|
GMT |
CCY |
EVENT |
EXP |
PREV |
IMPACT |
|
6:00 |
GBP |
Nationwide House Px (MoM) (AUG) |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Medium |
|
6:00 |
GBP |
Nationwide House Px (YoY) (AUG) |
10.2% |
10.6% |
Medium |
|
6:00 |
EUR |
German Retail Sales (MoM) (JUL) |
0.1% |
1.0% |
Medium |
|
6:00 |
EUR |
German Retail Sales (MoM) (JUL) |
1.5% |
0.4% |
Medium |
|
7:00 |
CHF |
KOF Leading Indicator (AUG) |
97.8 |
98.1 |
Low |
|
8:00 |
EUR |
Italian Unemployment Rate (JUL P) |
12.3% |
12.3% |
Low |
|
8:00 |
EUR |
Italian Unemployment Rate s.a. (2Q) |
12.5% |
12.7% |
Low |
|
9:00 |
EUR |
Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (JUL) |
11.5% |
11.5% |
Low |
|
9:00 |
EUR |
Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (YoY) (AUG) |
0.3% |
0.4% |
High |
|
9:00 |
EUR |
Euro-Zone CPI - Core (YoY) (AUG P) |
0.8% |
0.8% |
High |
|
9:00 |
EUR |
Italian CPI NIC incl. tobacco (MoM) (AUG P) |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Medium |
|
9:00 |
EUR |
Italian CPI NIC incl. tobacco (YoY) (AUG P) |
-0.1% |
0.1% |
Medium |
|
10:00 |
EUR |
Italian GDP s.a. and w.d.a. (QoQ) (2Q F) |
-0.2% |
-0.2% |
Medium |
|
10:00 |
EUR |
Italian GDP s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (2Q F) |
-0.3% |
-0.3% |
Medium |
Critical Levels
|
CCY |
Supp 3 |
Supp 2 |
Supp 1 |
Pivot Point |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
Res 3 |
|
EURUSD |
1.3066 |
1.3127 |
1.3154 |
1.3188 |
1.3215 |
1.3249 |
1.3310 |
|
GBPUSD |
1.6495 |
1.6542 |
1.6564 |
1.6589 |
1.6611 |
1.6636 |
1.6683 |
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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