Euro May Bounce from 9-Month Low if CPI Data Tops Forecasts
Talking Points:
- Euro May Bounce from 9-Month Low if Flash CPI Data Beats Forecasts
- New Zealand Dollar Bounces as Markets Chew Over RBNZ Policy Outlook
- View Economic Data Releases on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App
The preliminary estimate of July’s Eurozone CPI reading headlines the economic calendar in European hours. Expectations call for the benchmark year-on-year inflation rate to register at 0.5 percent, unchanged from the prior month. Leading PMI data from Markit Economics suggested output prices fell at a faster pace this month compared with June, opening the door for a downside surprise. Such an outcome may feed ECB stimulus expansion bets, weighing on the Euro.
It ought to be noted however that price-growth figures out of the single currency area have steadily improved relative to economists’ forecasts since the beginning of the year, according to figures from Citigroup. That means analysts have tended to over-estimate the extent of Eurozone disinflation. If that proves to be the case this time around, an upbeat print may help the single currency correct higher after sliding to the lowest level in nearly nine months against the US Dollar.
The New Zealand Dollar narrowly outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.2 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move paced a rebound in the island nation’s benchmark 10-year bond yield, hinting the Kiwi’s bounce reflected a correction as markets re-price monetary policy expectations following last week’s RBNZ rate decision.
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Asia Session
|
GMT |
CCY |
EVENT |
ACT |
EXP |
PREV |
|
23:05 |
GBP |
GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (JUL) |
-2 |
2 |
1 |
|
1:30 |
AUD |
Export Price Index (QoQ) (2Q) |
-7.9% |
-4.0% |
2.8% |
|
1:30 |
AUD |
Import Price Index (QoQ) (2Q) |
-3.0% |
-1.5% |
3.2% |
|
1:30 |
AUD |
Building Approvals (MoM) (JUN) |
-5.0% |
0.0% |
10.3% |
|
1:30 |
AUD |
Building Approvals (YoY) (JUN) |
16.0% |
23.3% |
15.2% |
|
1:30 |
AUD |
Private Sector Credit (MoM) (JUN) |
0.7% |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
1:30 |
AUD |
Private Sector Credit (YoY) (JUN) |
5.1% |
4.7% |
4.7% |
|
1:30 |
JPY |
Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (JUN) |
0.4% |
0.8% |
0.6% |
|
2:30 |
JPY |
Vehicle Production (YoY) (JUN) |
6.6% |
- |
6.1% |
|
3:00 |
NZD |
Money Supply M3 (YoY) (JUN) |
5.4% |
- |
5.2% |
|
5:00 |
JPY |
Annualized Housing Starts (JUN) |
0.883M |
0.857M |
0.872M |
|
5:00 |
JPY |
Construction Orders (YoY) (JUN) |
9.3% |
- |
13.7% |
|
5:00 |
JPY |
Housing Starts (YoY) (JUN) |
-9.5% |
-11.5% |
-15.0% |
European Session
|
GMT |
CCY |
EVENT |
EXP |
PREV |
IMPACT |
|
6:00 |
GBP |
Nationwide House Prices s.a. (MoM) (JUL) |
0.5% |
1.0% |
Low |
|
6:00 |
GBP |
Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. (YoY) (JUL) |
11.3% |
11.8% |
Low |
|
6:00 |
EUR |
German Retail Sales (MoM) (JUN) |
1.0% |
-0.6% |
Medium |
|
6:00 |
EUR |
German Retail Sales (YoY) (JUN) |
1.3% |
1.9% |
Medium |
|
7:55 |
EUR |
German Unemployment Change (JUL) |
-5K |
9K |
Medium |
|
7:55 |
EUR |
German Unemployment Rate s.a. (JUL) |
6.7% |
6.7% |
Medium |
|
8:00 |
EUR |
Italian Unemployment Rate (JUN P) |
12.6% |
12.6% |
Low |
|
9:00 |
EUR |
Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (YoY) (JUL) |
0.5% |
0.5% |
High |
|
9:00 |
EUR |
Euro-Zone CPI - Core (YoY) (JUL A) |
0.8% |
0.8% |
Medium |
|
9:00 |
EUR |
Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (JUN) |
11.6% |
11.6% |
Medium |
|
9:00 |
EUR |
Italian CPI NIC incl. tobacco (MoM) (JUL P) |
0.0% |
0.1% |
Low |
|
9:00 |
EUR |
Italian CPI NIC incl. tobacco (YoY) (JUL P) |
0.2% |
0.3% |
Low |
Critical Levels
|
CCY |
Supp 3 |
Supp 2 |
Supp 1 |
Pivot Point |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
Res 3 |
|
EURUSD |
1.3297 |
1.3345 |
1.3371 |
1.3393 |
1.3419 |
1.3441 |
1.3489 |
|
GBPUSD |
1.6789 |
1.6854 |
1.6884 |
1.6919 |
1.6949 |
1.6984 |
1.7049 |
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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