Fundamental Forecast: A EURUSD Swing Amid Historically Low Volatility this Week?

Talking Points:

• A seasonal drop in volatility through the US July 4th holiday period meets a historically deflating trend

• Heavy event risk is still on deck with US NFPs, an ECB decision and the Quarterly market roll

• Forcible deflation in volatility levels to fresh record lows can jump start a turn the following week

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Chief Strategist John Kicklighter discusses the top Forex fundamental themes for the coming week of trading. These sessions are held live every Monday at 16:30 GMT. There is a conflict of opportunity through this coming week. On the one hand, we have NFPs, an ECB and RBA rate decision, and the quarterly investment roll for the market. All of this remarkable event risk however meets a volatility and liquidity profile that threaten to deflate to multi-year - if not record - lows. How will the market react to key event risk this week given the confluence of a systemic and season collapse in volatility? What does this confluence mean for activity in the weeks ahead?

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