GBP/USD Faces Growing Risk for Bullish Breakout as DailyFX SSI Flips
Talking Points:
- GBP/USD Remains Capped by 1.6410-40 Ahead of BoE Carney’s Speech; SSI Flips to Negative.
- USD/CAD Continues to Carve Higher-Lows as Canada Retail Sales Disappoints.
- USDOLLAR Preserves Bullish Setup Ahead of U.S. Durable Goods, Final 2Q GDP Report
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GBP/USD
- GBP/USD remains capped around 1.6410 (61.8% retracement) to 1.6440 (23.6% expansion) along with channel resistance; need a break & close above this region to favor bullish outlook.
- Bank of England (BoE) Governor Mark Carney to speak on September 25 at 12:40 GMT; will the central bank head highlight a growing dissent within the committee?
- DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) highlights a material shift in retail position and has flipped for the first time since August, with the ratio current standing at -1.04.
USD/CAD
- USD/CAD trims decline to 1.0985 as Canada Retail Sales unexpectedly contracts 0.1% in July, marking the first decline in 2014.
- Inverse head-and-shoulders formation remains favored as long as USD/CAD holds above the August low (1.0809); string of higher-lows raises the risk for a higher-high.
- Would like to see a topside break in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to see a resumption of the bullish momentum as the oscillator remains stuck in a wedge/triangle formation.
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Read More:
Price & Time: Minor USD Reprieve Or Something More?
EUR/USD Overlooks PMI Results Despite Manufacturing At 13-Months Low
USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):
|
Index |
Last |
High |
Low |
Daily Change (%) |
Daily Range (% of ATR) |
|
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index |
10944.89 |
10947.5 |
10903.66 |
0.06 |
88.27% |
Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
- Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index retains ascending channel, bullish RSI after paring the decline to 10,903; will stay supportive as long as the current structures remain in play.
- Even though U.S. Durable Goods Orders are expected to contract 18.0% in August, a marked upward revision in the final 2Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may heighten the bullish sentiment surrounding the dollar as it boosts interest rate expectations..
- Will continue to watch 10,989 (50.0% expansion) to 11,009 (July 2013 high), but fresh comments from Fed dove Charles Evans may drag on the dollar as the Chicago Fed President is a voting-member on the FOMC this year.
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|
Release |
GMT |
Expected |
Actual |
|
Fed's James Bullard Speaks on U.S. Economy |
13:00 | ||
|
House Price Index (MoM) (JUL) |
13:00 |
0.5% |
0.1% |
|
Fed's Jerome Powell Speaks on U.S. Economy |
13:20 | ||
|
Fed's Esther George Speaks on U.S. Economy |
13:30 | ||
|
Markit Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (SEP P) |
13:45 |
58.0 |
57.9 |
|
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (SEP) |
14:00 |
10 |
14 |
|
Fed's Narayan Kocherlakota Speaks on U.S. Economy |
18:00 |
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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst
To contact David, e-mail [email protected]. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.
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