GBP/USD Falters at Resistance After UK 1Q GDP Misses Estimates

Talking Points:

• UK 1Q GDP Expands 0.8% vs 0.9% expected
• British Pound Sinks Against US Dollar Following Data
• British Pound Ready for a Breakout on 1Q GDP Release

The British Pound fell against the US Dollar as quarter-on-quarter UK 1Q GDP missed analyst expectations. The U.K. economy was estimated to expand at its fasted pace in four years in the first quarter abetted by record-low interest rates. Though the benchmark growth-rate missed expectations, UK Chancellor Osborne says GDP figures show Britain is coming back.

DailyFX Currency Strategist David Song says the fundamental developments coming out of the U.K. may continue to heighten the appeal of the British Pound. The sterling mounted an impressive rally on a pick-up in economic activity in July 2013 that saw the sterling appreciate 16.42% annualized. The rally found fuel early in 2014 on speculation for an imminent rate hike.

“The stronger recovery in the U.K. puts increased pressure on the central bank to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later,” says Song, “and Governor Carney can do little to halt the appreciation in the sterling as it helps to achieve the 2% target for inflation.”

DailyFX Technical Strategist Jamie Sattele says the upside momentum is pathetic. “RSI hasn’t been above 70 since October so this doesn’t even feel like a bull,” Saettele says, “but respect upside as long as the trend line that extends off of the November and February lows holds.” He says that if GBPUSD pushes to new highs to watch for resistance near 1.9685.

GBPUSD Daily chart From GBP/USD New High (again) and Pullback (again)

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using FXCM Marketscope 2.0.

-- Written by David Maycotte, DailyFX Research Team. Questions, comments or concerns can be sent to [email protected].

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