Major Event Risk Ahead for US Dollar – Levels to Watch

Talking Points:

- Major event risk ahead for US Dollar - two high risk events today.

- USDCAD susceptible, AUDUSD requires patience.

- October Forex Seasonality Foretells End of Seasonal USD Weakness

The US Dollar has been able to retrace about half of its losses from its October highs, but it's not out of the woods just yet. Technical progress has been promising for the broad USDOLLAR Index over the past few days, but with a wall of major event risk ahead, fundamental influences will be heavy-handed over the immediate time horizon.

Up first today for the greenback are the September Durable Goods Orders (12:30 GMT) and October Consumer Confidence (14:00 GMT) reports, both of which will signal to the market the financial health of the US consumer. After all, it's only when consumers and businesses are confident about job prospects and income/revenue that they splurge on big ticket item.

These reports could prove treacherous for the US Dollar if there are significant misses. Disappointment could have a profound impact thanks to where traders currently stand: notional USD long positioning among speculators is at its second highest level of all-time, per the CFTC's most recent COT report.

See the above video for technical considerations in USDOLLAR, EURUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD, and USDCAD.

Read more: Small Window Opens for Euro Short Covering - Will Market Oblige?

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

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