Managing Risk in EUR/USD, AUD/USD – Next Trade is in EUR/AUD

Talking Points:

- EURUSD and AUDUSD blow through support targets.

- EURAUD makes bullish progress at 8-EMA through downtrend.

- Have a bullish (or bearish) bias on the US Dollar, but don’t know which pair to use? Use a USD currency basket.

Demand for US Dollars remained strong in the overnight with EURUSD pushing to fresh yearly lows below $1.2800, with ongoing concern about direction of Chinese policy perhaps serving as an additional exogenous weight to the AUDUSD.

As impressive as the US Dollar's bull run has been (working on the 11 consecutive week of gains) it's important to manage risk expectations and not let the trend get away from you. It's very easy to chase price at these levels.

There has been an interesting dynamic that has developed between EURUSD and its daily 13-EMA and between AUDUSD and its daily 8-EMA. Both of these relationships highlight the importance of keeping a trailing average to illuminate the intensity of countertrend moves. With respect to current positions and trends, we can estimate that the nature of these moves has changed if EURUSD price were to exceed its 13-EMA or AUDUSD price were to exceed its 8-EMA, for example.

See the video above for technical considerations in EURUSD and AUDUSD, and see why EURAUD may be the next big mover after breaking its downtrend from January, March, and August 2014.

Read more: Silver Breakdown Hints at USD Turning Point; EUR/USD, USD/CAD Not Done

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

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