Pound Looks to UK CPI to Inform BOE Bets, Aussie Up with China Stocks
Talking Points:
- British Pound May Fall as Soft Inflation Data Weighs on BOE Rate Hike Bets
- Aussie, NZ Dollars Outperform on Ebbing HK-Linked China Instability Fears
- PlaceEconomic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App
September’s UK CPI figures headline the economic calendar in European trading hours. The headline year-on-year inflation rate is expected to slow to 1.4 percent, marking a five-year low. UK price-growth readings have tended to underperform relative to consensus forecasts over recent months (according to data from Citigroup), hinting the realized result may prove softer still. Such an outcome is likely to weigh on the British Pound amid ebbing BOE rate hike bets.
With that in mind, leading survey data offers a mixed perspective. While price pressures in the manufacturing sector looked anemic in September, implied service-sector inflation registered at a four-month high over the same period. Services account for close to 80 percent of the overall economy, so a pickup in price growth there may carry significant implications for nationwide figures and deliver an upside surprise on the CPI print. Needless to say, Sterling is likely to find support in this scenario.
The Australian and New Zealand Dollars outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.6 and 0.3 percent respectively against their leading counterparts. The two currencies tracked gains in China’s Shanghai Composite and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index equity benchmarks. The moves came amid reports that police were clearing protesters’ barricades in Hong Kong, pointing to ebbing instability risk in Australia and New Zealand’s largest export market.
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Asia Session
|
GMT |
CCY |
EVENT |
ACT |
EXP |
PREV |
|
22:30 |
AUD |
ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Conf |
113.8 |
- |
112.6 |
|
23:01 |
GBP |
BRC Sales Like-For-Like (YoY) (SEP) |
-2.1% |
1.0% |
1.3% |
|
23:50 |
JPY |
Japan Money Stock M3 (YoY) (SEP) |
2.5% |
2.4% |
2.5% |
|
23:50 |
JPY |
Japan Money Stock M2 (YoY) (SEP) |
3.0% |
2.9% |
3.0% |
|
23:50 |
JPY |
Domestic CGPI (MoM) (SEP) |
-0.1% |
-0.1% |
-0.2% |
|
23:50 |
JPY |
Domestic CGPI (YoY) (SEP) |
3.5% |
3.6% |
3.9% |
|
0:30 |
AUD |
NAB Business Confidence (SEP) |
5 |
- |
7 |
|
0:30 |
AUD |
NAB Business Conditions (SEP) |
1 |
- |
3 |
|
2:00 |
NZD |
Non Resident Bond Holdings (SEP) |
65.9% |
- |
66.9% |
European Session
|
GMT |
CCY |
EVENT |
EXP |
PREV |
IMPACT |
|
7:15 |
CHF |
Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (SEP) |
- |
-1.2% |
Low |
|
7:15 |
CHF |
Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (SEP) |
- |
-0.2% |
Low |
|
8:30 |
GBP |
PPI Input n.s.a. (MoM) (SEP) |
-0.5% |
-0.6% |
Low |
|
8:30 |
GBP |
PPI Input n.s.a. (YoY) (SEP) |
-6.7% |
-7.2% |
Low |
|
8:30 |
GBP |
PPI Output n.s.a. (MoM) (SEP) |
-0.1% |
-0.1% |
Medium |
|
8:30 |
GBP |
PPI Output n.s.a. (YoY) (SEP) |
-0.3% |
-0.3% |
Medium |
|
8:30 |
GBP |
PPI Output Core n.s.a. (MoM) (SEP) |
0.0% |
0.1% |
Low |
|
8:30 |
GBP |
PPI Output Core n.s.a. (YoY) (SEP) |
0.9% |
0.9% |
Low |
|
8:30 |
GBP |
CPI (MoM) (SEP) |
0.2% |
0.4% |
High |
|
8:30 |
GBP |
CPI (YoY) (SEP) |
1.4% |
1.5% |
High |
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Core CPI (YoY) (SEP) |
1.8% |
1.9% |
High |
|
8:30 |
GBP |
RPI (MoM) (SEP) |
0.3% |
0.4% |
Low |
|
8:30 |
GBP |
RPI (YoY) (SEP) |
2.3% |
2.4% |
Low |
|
8:30 |
GBP |
RPI Ex Mort Int. Payments (YoY) (SEP) |
2.4% |
2.5% |
Low |
|
8:30 |
GBP |
ONS House Prices (YoY) (SEP) |
- |
11.7% |
Low |
|
8:30 |
EUR |
Italian General Government Debt (AUG) |
- |
2168.6B |
Low |
|
9:00 |
EUR |
German ZEW Survey (Econ Sentiment) (OCT) |
0.0 |
6.9 |
Medium |
|
9:00 |
EUR |
German ZEW Survey (Current Situation) (OCT) |
15.0 |
25.4 |
Medium |
|
9:00 |
EUR |
Eurozone ZEW Survey (Econ Sentiment) (OCT) |
- |
14.2 |
Medium |
|
9:00 |
EUR |
Eurozone Industrial Production (MoM) (SEP) |
-1.6% |
1.0% |
Low |
|
9:00 |
EUR |
Eurozone Industrial Production (YoY) (SEP) |
-0.9% |
2.2% |
Low |
Critical Levels
|
CCY |
Supp 3 |
Supp 2 |
Supp 1 |
Pivot Point |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
Res 3 |
|
EURUSD |
1.2429 |
1.2570 |
1.2661 |
1.2711 |
1.2802 |
1.2852 |
1.2993 |
|
GBPUSD |
1.5936 |
1.6012 |
1.6048 |
1.6088 |
1.6124 |
1.6164 |
1.6240 |
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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