Retail Crowd Remains Net-Short EUR/USD Ahead of Greek Bailout Talks
Talking Points:
- EUR/USD Range Vulnerable as Greece Struggles to Secure Bailout Extension.
- USD/CAD Rebound to Accelerate on Dismal Canada Retail Sales Report.
- USDOLLAR Holds Tight Range Ahead of FOMC Minutes; Forward-Guidance in Focus.
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EUR/USD
Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
- Will continue to focus on the near-term range in EUR/USD as Greece struggles to secure an extension of its bailout program; will the event spur a ‘buy the rumor/sell the news’ reaction?
- The Purchasing Manager Indices (PMI) coming out of the euro-area may help limit the downside risk for EUR/USD as the data prints are expected to show a pickup in economic activity.
- DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-short EUR/USD, but seeing the ratio continue to narrow from the extreme readings from earlier this month as the ratio currently sits at -1.54.
USD/CAD
- Near-term rebound in USD/CAD may gather pace over the next 24-hours of trade as Canada’s Retail Sales report is expected to show a 0.4% contraction in December; may spur speculation for another Bank of Canada (BoC) rate cut.
- Will also keep a close eye on oil prices amid the growing correlation with the Canadian dollar; crude remains vulnerable to a further decline as it struggles to hold above the $53 handle.
- As USD/CAD continues to hold above the monthly opening low (1.2350), will keep a close eye on the string of lower-highs at 1.2696 and 1.2797.
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Read More:
USDOLLAR Back in Pre-FOMC Range - Will Greece Deal Stoke EUR/USD?
USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):
|
Index |
Last |
High |
Low |
Daily Change (%) |
Daily Range (% of ATR) |
|
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index |
11775.44 |
11798.17 |
11755.09 |
0.00 |
70.17% |
Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
- Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar pares decline to 11,754 despite the slew of dismal U.S. data; despite the cautious tone laid out in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes, seeing mixed reactions to the fresh batch of central bank rhetoric.
- Will retain bullish view for USDOLLAR as it continues to close above 11,774; waiting for a break of the bearish momentum in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to favor a further advance in the greenback.
- Until then, will continue to watch the near-term range of 11,721 (38.2% expansion) to 11,901 (78.6% expansion).
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|
Release |
GMT |
Expected |
Actual |
|
Initial Jobless Claims (FEB 14) |
13:30 |
290K |
283K |
|
Continuing Claims (FEB 7) |
13:30 |
2360K |
2425K |
|
Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (FEB) |
15:00 |
9.0 |
5.2 |
|
Leading Index (JAN) |
15:00 |
0.3% |
0.2% |
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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst
To contact David, e-mail [email protected]. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.
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