Swiss 1Q GDP Misses Estimates, Swiss Franc Vulnerable to Further Losses?

Talking Points:

• Swiss 1Q GDP 0.5% q/q vs. 0.6% Expected
• Swiss Franc Little-Changed After Data Release
• SNB Sees Slow Inflation Rise Through 2015

Swiss GDP disappointed in the first quarter, showing the economy expanded 0.5 percent from the previous period, missing estimates calling for a print of 0.6 percent. The year-on-year output grew 2.0 percent, marking the largest increase since fourth quarter 2013, and beating estimates of 1.9 percent.

The release may not offer meaningful directional cues for the Swiss Franc as it has limited implications for Swiss National Bank (SNB) monetary policy. The SNB foresees its baseline inflation rate below 1 percent through, and well below its 2 percent target rate through the next two years.

The USDCHF was little-changed following the release given the data’s limited impact on the SNB policy outlook, but according to DailyFX Strategist Ilya Spivak, technical positioning warns of deeper franc losses ahead.

“The near-term path is higher, but the USD/CHF faces a load of levels up to 0.9020 0r so,” says FX Strategist Jamie Saettele, CMT, “Below .8896 would likely give way to .8860.”

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USD/CHF 5-Minute Chart. May 28, 2014 created using Marketscope 2.0.

-- Written by David Maycotte, DailyFX Research Team. Questions, comments or concerns can be sent to [email protected].

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