Trading Video: Dollar and S&P 500 Look Precarious Before FOMC

Talking Points:

• The FOMC decision is top event risk Wednesday and the Dollar is at the cross-hairs

• Beyond the relative position of US policy to its counterparts, risk trends are linked to this event

• Dollar-based majors, Yen crosses, the S&P 500 and Kiwi Dollar pairs ready for volatility

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The S&P 500 is within a few days' rally of record highs while the US Dollar has rallied aggressively to hit its own 11-year high. Both of these benchmarks are scaling the heights they currently find themselves in large part due to the Fed and global monetary policy. For the currency, the early shift towards normalization draws the contrast to global counterparts still loosening the reins. Alternatively, capital markets are still trying to squeeze as much progress as possible from financial conditions groomed by moral hazard. One side of this balance will have to give eventually. With the FOMC rate decision ahead, this disparate backdrop may finally crack. And, while the US central bank's assessment will generate market volatility, FX and capital market traders should also keep context. An RBNZ rate decision, the recent UK GDP figures, last week's ECB QE introduction and other important fundamental themes need to considered for risk and opportunity. We take a look at the market's rough landscape ahead in today's Trading Video.

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