US Dollar May Rise on Fed Bets as June Inflation Data Tops Forecasts
Talking Points:
- US Dollar Likely to Rise if June’s Inflation Data Outshines Expectations
- Aussie Dollar Higher, Yen Declines as Risk Appetite Firms in Asian Trade
- See Economic Data Releases on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App
A quiet economic calendar in European trading hours is likely to see investors looking ahead to the release of June’s US CPI data. The benchmark year-on-year inflation rate is expected to register at 2.1 percent, unchanged from the prior month. Data from Citigroup suggests US price-growth readings have increasingly outperformed relative to consensus forecasts since the beginning of the year, opening the door for an upside surprise. Such an outcome may inspire speculation that the time gap between October’s end of Fed QE and the first subsequent interest rate hike will be shorter than expected, driving the US Dollar higher.
The Australian Dollar narrowly outperformed in otherwise quiet overnight trade as stocks advanced, boosting support for the sentiment-linked currency. On the other side of the risk appetite spectrum, the safe-haven Japanese Yen faced selling pressure. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark equity index added 0.3 percent. Newswires attributed the move to fading concerns about the economic implications of geopolitical jitters that preoccupied investors last week.
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Asia Session
|
GMT |
CCY |
EVENT |
ACT |
EXP |
PREV |
|
23:30 |
AUD |
ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Cons. Conf. Index |
113.5 |
- |
108.7 |
|
2:00 |
CNY |
Conference Board Leading Index (JUN) |
294.0 |
- |
290.3 |
|
4:30 |
JPY |
All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (MAY) |
0.6% |
0.6% |
-4.6% |
|
4:42 |
JPY |
Supermarket Sales (YoY) (JUN) |
-2.8% |
- |
-2.2% |
|
5:00 |
JPY |
Leading Index (MAY F) |
- |
105.7 |
|
|
5:00 |
JPY |
Coincident Index (MAY F) |
- |
111.1 |
European Session
|
GMT |
CCY |
EVENT |
EXP |
PREV |
IMPACT |
|
6:00 |
CHF |
Trade Balance (CHF) (JUN) |
2.78B |
2.85B |
Low |
|
6:00 |
CHF |
Exports (MoM) (JUN) |
- |
-5.0% |
Low |
|
6:00 |
CHF |
Imports (MoM) (JUN) |
- |
-2.5% |
Low |
|
7:00 |
JPY |
Convenience Store Sales (YoY) (JUN) |
- |
-0.8% |
Low |
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Public Finances (PSNCR) (£) (JUN) |
- |
8.5B |
Low |
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Central Government NCR (£) (JUN) |
- |
12.4B |
Low |
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Public Sector Net Borrowing (£) (JUN) |
9.4B |
11.5B |
Low |
|
8:30 |
GBP |
PSNB ex Interventions (£) (JUN) |
10.5B |
13.3B |
Low |
|
8:30 |
GBP |
PSNB ex Royal Mail, APF (£) (JUN) |
11.1B |
13.3B |
Low |
|
9:00 |
EUR |
Eurozone Government Debt (1Q) |
- |
- |
Low |
|
10:00 |
GBP |
CBI Trends Total Orders (JUL) |
8 |
11 |
Low |
|
10:00 |
GBP |
CBI Business Optimism (JUL) |
30 |
33 |
Low |
|
10:00 |
GBP |
CBI Trends Selling Prices (JUL) |
4 |
3 |
Low |
Critical Levels
|
CCY |
Supp 3 |
Supp 2 |
Supp 1 |
Pivot Point |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
Res 3 |
|
EURUSD |
1.3457 |
1.3493 |
1.3508 |
1.3529 |
1.3544 |
1.3565 |
1.3601 |
|
GBPUSD |
1.6991 |
1.7034 |
1.7055 |
1.7077 |
1.7098 |
1.7120 |
1.7163 |
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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