US Dollar to Look Past GDP Downgrade, Focus on Durable Goods and PMI

Talking Points:

• Euro Still Looking to ECB Commentary for Stimulus Expansion Clues
• Currency Markets May Look Past Another Downgrade of 1Q US GDP
• US Dollar to Rise if Durables, PMI Data Top Economists’ Forecasts

A lackluster European economic calendar offers little to drive volatility in the major currencies. Another round of scheduled commentary from ECB officials is perhaps most notable, with Governing Council members Carlos Costa, Luis Maria Linde and Jens Weidmann all set to speak. Investors will be looking for clues about a forthcoming ECB asset purchase program, scanning officials’ remarks for any indications about the strategy approach likely to be implemented and timing of the effort’s commencement. It ought to be noted ample prior commentary from ECB policymakers has failed to drive the Euro, with EURUSD oscillating near the 1.36 figure.

Later in the day, the spotlight shifts to US news-flow once again. The final revision of first-quarter GDP figures is expected to further downgrade the economy’s performance, revealing a 1.8 percent contraction. That compares with a previously reported 1 percent drop decline. While hardly supportive, the outcome may not translate into downward pressure on the US Dollar considering the now widely-publicized slump in the first three months of the year has clearly failed to derail the Fed’s effort to “taper” QE asset purchases.

With that in mind, investors may opt to focus on more timely bits of scheduled event risk, with the spotlight on May’s Durable Goods Orders report and June’s service-sector and composite PMI figures. The trend in US economic data outcomes marked an important turning point relative to consensus forecasts in early April and has broadly (if unevenly) continued to improve since. More of the same may help engineer a re-evaluation of US Dollar weakness following last week’s FOMC announcement, sending the benchmark unit higher.

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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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