CAD False Break?

Posted By : MRG Mega Berjangka, Jul 16, 2014 – 21:55

DailyFX.com -

Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR Threatens Bearish Setup; Yellen Testimony in Focus

- GBP/USD at Risk for Bearish Inside-Day (Harami) as U.K. Wage Growth Disappoints

- USD/CAD Climbs to Fresh Monthly High as Bank of Canada (BoC)Talks Down Inflation Risk

Index	Last	High	Low	Daily Change (%)	Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index	10432.84	10446.13	10425.49	0.06	75.35%

USDOLLAR (Ticker: USDollar):

Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index climbs to a fresh monthly high of 10,446 as U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) beats forecast, but very limited follow-through behind the initial market reaction.
Remains at risk for a larger correction as it clears 10,440 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) & with the bullish break in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) gathering pace.
Nevertheless, will continue to look for a lower-high as the USDOLLAR retains the bearish channel from earlier this year while Fed remains reluctant to move away from its highly accommodative policy.
Fed Chair Janet Yellen delivers same prepared remarks to House Financial Services Committee; focus turns to the Q&A with lawmakers.

GBP/USD:

British Pound struggled to benefit from the 36.3K decline in U.K. Jobless Claims as wage growth disappoints.
Nevertheless, bullish outlook remains favorable as the ongoing improvement in the labor market paired with the threat of an asset-bubble keeps the Bank of England (BoE) on course to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later.
With market participants turning their to the BoE Minutes due out on July 23, the main focus will be on the vote count as we look for a greater dissent within the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

USD/CAD:

Spikes to a fresh monthly high of 1.0793 as Bank of Canada (BoC) talks down inflation risk.
Nevertheless, BoC argues next move has become more neutral and continues to see a ‘soft landing’ in the housing market.
Looks as though we will continue to see a shift in the BoC’s guidance; still looking for a lower-high as USD/CAD retains downward trending channel from earlier this year.

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates Across the Majors!

USDOLLAR Daily

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Release	GMT	Expected	Actual
MBA Mortgage Applications (JUL 11)	11:00	--	-3.6%
Producer Price Index (MoM) (JUN)	12:30	0.2%	0.4%
Producer Price Index (YoY) (JUN)	12:30	1.9%	1.9%
Producer Price Index ex Food and Energy (MoM) (JUN)	12:30	0.2%	0.2%
Producer Price Index ex Food and Energy (YoY) (JUN)	12:30	1.7%	1.8%
Net Long-term TIC Flows (MAY)	13:00	$25.0B	$19.4B
Total Net TIC Flows (MAY)	13:00	--	$35.5B
Industrial Production (JUN)	13:15	0.3%	0.2%
Capacity Utilization (JUN)	13:15	79.3%	79.1%
Manufacturing Production (SIC) (JUN)	13:15	0.3%	0.1%
NAHB Housing Market Index (JUL)	14:00	50
Fed Chair Janet Yellen Testifies to House Committee	14:00
DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (JUL 11)	14:30	-2750K	-7525K
DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (JUL 11)	14:30	2000K	2528K
DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (JUL 11)	14:30	950K	171K
Fed's Richard Fisher Speaks on Monetary Policy	16:00
Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book	18:00

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail [email protected]. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand

Looking to use the DailyFX Trade Signals LIVE? Check out Mirror Trader.

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums

MRG MEGA BERJANGKA