USDOLLAR Eyes Lower Low- AUD Fills Gap But Needs Close Above 0.9100
Talking Points:
- USDOLLAR at Risk for Lower Low Ahead of FOMC Meeting
- AUDUSD Looking to Fill Weekly Opening Gap; Watching for Close Above 0.9100
|
Index |
Last |
High |
Low |
Daily Change (%) |
Daily Range (% of ATR) |
|
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index |
10513.81 |
10562.78 |
10508.34 |
-0.46 |
152.75% |
USDOLLAR Daily
Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
- Failure to Push Above 10,590 (50.0 retracement) Risks Lower High
- Interim Resistance: 10,602 (38.2 retracement) to 10,615 (78.6 expansion)
- Interim Support: 10,470 Pivot
|
Release |
GMT |
Expected |
Actual |
|
Advance Retail Sales (FEB) |
12:30 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
Advance Retail Sales ex Autos (FEB) |
12:30 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
Advance Retail Sales ex Auto and Gas (FEB) |
12:30 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
Advance Retail Sales Control Group (FEB) |
12:30 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 8) |
12:30 |
330K |
315K |
|
Continuing Claims (MAR 1) |
12:30 |
2903K |
2855K |
|
Import Price Index (MoM) (FEB) |
12:30 |
0.5% |
0.9% |
|
Import Price Index (YoY) (FEB) |
12:30 |
-1.9% |
-1.1% |
|
Business Inventories (JAN) |
14:00 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) extended the decline from earlier this week despite the slew of positive developments coming out of the U.S. economy, and the greenback faces a growing risk for a lower low as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) threatens the bullish momentum carried over from the previous month.
As mentioned in DailyFX on Demand, a downside break in the RSI may push the USDOLLAR back down towards the 10,470 region, and we will maintain our approach for ‘selling bounces’ in the greenback as it carves a lower high in March.
With that said, we may have to wait the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision to see a meaningful rebound in the dollar as the central bank is widely expected to reduce its asset-purchase program by another $10B, and we will continue to watch the downside targets ahead of the policy meeting as the reserve currency search for support.
AUDUSD Daily
- Waiting for Opening Gap to be Filled on Close-Basis; Needs Close Above 0.9100
- Interim Resistance: 0.9200 (100.0% expansion) to 0.9210 (61.8% retracement)
- Interim Support: 0.8670 (100.0% expansion) to 0.8700 (78.6% retracement)
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The greenback weakened across the board, led by a 1.21 percent advance in the Australian dollar, and the AUDUSD looks poised to fill the Sunday opening gap on a close-basis following the upbeat employment report coming out of the $1T economy.
Indeed, the technical outlook continues to favor further advance for the AUDUSD as price and RSI retains the bullish trend from earlier this year, but a failed close above 0.9100 may generate a pullback in the exchange rate as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) looks for a weaker currency.
In turn, we will maintain a long-term bearish outlook for the Australian dollar, and the AUDUSD may continue to carve a lower high in March as Governor Glenn Stevens prefers the exchange rate close to the 0.8500 handle.
--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst
To contact David, e-mail [email protected]. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.
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